A recent jobs report from Forrester suggests that while artificial intelligence will reshape parts of the U.S. labor market over the rest of the decade, fears of an AI-driven “job apocalypse” are overblown.

In its “AI Job Impact Forecast, US, 2025–2030,” Forrester estimates that automation and AI will account for about 6% of total U.S. job losses by 2030, or roughly 10.4 million roles. The firm says this impact falls far short of the large-scale job displacement often predicted in public debates about AI. According to the report, replacing human workers at scale would require a much faster acceleration in labor productivity than current trends suggest.

Rather than eliminating large numbers of jobs outright, Forrester predicts that AI will increasingly be used to augment work. The firm estimates that around 20% of jobs will be affected by AI-driven augmentation over the next five years, changing how tasks are performed and increasing the importance of training and skill development. Forrester says this shift is a management and governance challenge as much as a technological one, recommending that organizations prepare their workers to collaborate with AI systems rather than attempting to replace them.

“We may not be heading for an imminent AI job apocalypse, but how organizations handle AI today will define more than just their future success,” said J. P. Gownder, VP and principal analyst at Forrester. “To navigate the complexity around the human and AI era, leaders must prioritize governance and invest in their people — treating AI not as a replacement for human talent but as a tool to enhance it.”

The report also cautions companies against over-automating roles in response to AI enthusiasm. Forrester warns that rushing to replace workers without mature, production-ready AI systems can lead to operational setbacks, damaged reputations, and poor employee experiences. Supporting this view, the firm’s future-of-work research predicts that more than half of layoffs attributed to AI will be quietly reversed this year as companies realize the operational challenges of replacing human talent prematurely.

Another theme in the forecast is the growing tendency to conflate financially motivated layoffs with AI-driven layoffs. Forrester notes that some organizations have publicly linked job cuts to AI adoption even when they lack deployed systems capable of replacing those roles, a practice the firm describes as “AI washing.” This trend, the report suggests, risks distorting the conversation around AI’s true impact on employment.

Gownder calls AI washing a “dirty little secret of AI and layoffs,” noting: “Every week, we speak to clients telling some version of the following story: ‘Our CEO said we’re laying off 20% of staff and replacing them with AI — how do we do that?’ When we ask if they have a mature, vetted AI app ready to fill in those jobs, nine out of 10 times, the answer is no — and they haven’t even started. So most of the layoffs are financially driven, and AI is just the scapegoat, at least today.”

AI’s effects on the job market are also expected to vary widely by role. Forrester identifies junior positions, software development jobs, and customer service roles as facing the most near-term pressure, while other categories may see less disruption or primarily experience task-level changes rather than job elimination.

To navigate this transition, Forrester says companies must pair AI investments with investments in people. The report highlights the need for structured approaches to employee readiness, developing AI-related skills, and training workers on responsible and ethical AI use. Without that parallel focus, Forrester says, organizations are unlikely to realize sustained value from their AI initiatives.

“Even if we’re not heading for an imminent AI job apocalypse, we’ve entered a new era in which how organizations deploy AI will change how we work, how we serve customers, and how we live. But in the next five years, the future of work will remain largely human,” Gownder said.